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Paul Finebaum Doubts This SEC Team Will Return to College Football Playoff in 2025

The 2025 college football season is just a few months away, and teams are preparing, which includes addressing key player losses.

One team that made it to the College Football Playoff last season and faces a significant gap to fill is the Tennessee Volunteers.

The Volunteers experienced an unexpected setback when redshirt sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava decided to transfer before the spring game this year. The former five-star recruit had a solid season, throwing for 2,616 yards, with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. Iamaleava will be succeeded by former Appalachian State quarterback Joey Aguilar, who initially committed to UCLA.

During his time at Appalachian State, Aguilar amassed impressive stats, throwing for 6,760 yards, 56 touchdowns and 24 interceptions while completing 60.1% of his passes. Additionally, he rushed for 452 yards and five touchdowns over the course of two seasons.

On "The Paul Finebaum Show," SEC Network analyst Paul Finebaum was asked whether he thinks Tennessee will win 10 games in 2025, and he did not hesitate in his response.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel talks to Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava.

"No, I don't," Finebaum said.

While not winning 10 games doesn't necessarily mean the Volunteers won't make the playoffs, it does make that goal more challenging. No team has reached the playoffs without achieving at least 10 wins, except Clemson, which qualified last year solely because it won the ACC.

A significant reason Finebaum may feel this way is that Tennessee will need to replace some key players to stay competitive. In addition to losing quarterback Nico Iamaleava, the Volunteers will be without star running back Dylan Sampson and defensive end James Pearce Jr. Sampson was taken by the Cleveland Browns in the fourth round of the NFL draft, and the Atlanta Falcons took Pearce Jr. with the 26th overall pick.

On the positive side, Tennessee benefits from its schedule. Athlon Sports' Kyle Wood ranks it as having the third-easiest schedule in the SEC for the 2025 season. He highlights two important games against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. Last year, Tennessee won both of these matchups at home, but it hasn't won at Alabama since 2004 or at Florida since 2003.

All these factors have led Finebaum to predict that, in a worst-case scenario, the Volunteers could finish the 2025 season with an 8-4 record.

Tennessee will kick off its season on Aug. 30 against the Syracuse Orange at noon ET.

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