American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC): A Bull Case Theory

Ricardo Pillai

Mon, Jun 9, 2025, 8:43 AM 3 min read

We came across a bullish thesis on American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) on Miroslav Štěpánek’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ACIC. American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC)'s share was trading at $11.75 as of 4^th June. ACIC’s trailing P/E was 7.99 according to Yahoo Finance.

An insurance agent at their desk consulting a customer about property & casualty insurance.

American Coastal is a Florida-based property insurer that stands out in a typically commoditized industry due to its strategic niche, disciplined underwriting, and exposure to a high-premium market shaped by hurricane risk. Despite operating in a state where insurers have frequently gone bankrupt due to underpricing and fraud, American Coastal has maintained resilience through selective client screening and rigorous risk assessment, especially in its focus on residential-commercial properties with gardens.

The company’s 2022 combined ratio of 86.5%—even after Hurricane Ian—demonstrated its superior underwriting discipline. Trading at a 2024 P/E of 6.9 and boasting a high-teens free cash flow yield, the stock appears significantly undervalued. The company is now well-capitalized post-separation from UPC, with founder Daniel Peed still on the board despite stepping down as CEO. American Coastal is actively returning capital to shareholders via dividends and opportunistic buybacks and has initiated a $0.50/share dividend, reflecting confidence in its financial health.

While core insurance operations are mature, modest organic growth is expected from Florida’s demographic shifts, and a new MGU business could generate $20 million in annual profits over time.

The hurricane risk remains real, but even recent storms like Helene and Milton only caused a modest financial impact, and major hurricanes may sustain high pricing. Investor sentiment remains cautious due to lingering concerns from its UPC past and weather-driven volatility, but those willing to look past episodic turbulence may find compelling upside.

A conservative valuation model suggests potential returns of 2–3x over the next few years, making American Coastal a high-yield, asymmetric value play in a misunderstood niche.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on RLI Corp. (RLI) by Serhio MaxDividends on Substack, operating within the same industry as ACIC, praising its 50-year dividend growth streak, robust underwriting, and strong balance sheet despite a dip in Q1 earnings. Miroslav Štěpánek’s thesis on American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) offers a more contrarian angle, spotlighting a Florida-focused insurer with disciplined underwriting and a high cash flow yield. While RLI offers stability and long-term compounding, ACIC presents an asymmetric value bet with 2–3x upside potential for those willing to brave weather-driven volatility.